Flying Chinese pigs 🐷🇨🇳Jul 26, 2022
The image of a flying pig may be a little fanciful, but it makes sense when you see that the forecast is that pork production in China will be up 9.1%, while in the rest of the world it will be down 2%. The reason for the increase in imports in the U.S. is more pork from each of the major suppliers; the reason for the decline in exports is due to less U.S. pork being shipped to every major buyer.
- The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service predicts that world pork production will be up 2.9% in 2022 due to China, whose production is recovering from an outbreak of African Swine Fever.
- Pork production in China and Mexico is up, while production in all other major producing regions is down.
Here’s what’s impacting pork production in the U.S.:
- Summer weather: it’s having its typical impact, that of a slowing rate of gain – thereby reducing slaughter weights.
- Inflation: it’s pushing retail prices up – in June, we saw record prices for the fourth consecutive month.
- Cash corn prices: high corn prices have increased production costs for hog farms.
But! Some “good” news for pork producers, or as good as it gets at the moment:
- We’ve seen the smallest calf crop since 2015. “And how the heck can that be good?”, you might wonder. It’s quite simple: declining calf crops eventually lead to less beef on the market, which can lead to increased pork demand.